Assad dead in 2024?

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This market resolves YES if Bashar al-Assad, former President of Syria, is confirmed dead before 31 Dec 2024. If he is dead prior to market creation, it still resolves YES. This will resolve NO if credible sources prove he's alive at the end of this year.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): If Assad's status is unclear on December 31st 2024, the market will be extended until there is proof of life or death.

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Bloomberg is reporting Assad in Russia - resolve? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-08/syrian-tv-says-assad-s-government-has-fallen-after-rebel-advance?srnd=homepage-americas

bought Ṁ50 YES

@WallStreetCorgi Why resolve, still 22 days left in 2024.

There is plenty chance of "fell out a window" or "airplane crash" per history in recent years.

@DistinctlySkeptical fair point - forgot that Russia != immortality

bought Ṁ50 YES

@WallStreetCorgi I don't have a bloomberg subscription so I don't know about their source.

I don't have trust in other (russian state media) reports that they are indeed in Russia. There are no new photos of them

and DW is seemingly still unsure https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-fakes-surrounding-assads-escape-to-moscow/a-71016174

#BREAKING Bashar al-Assad and family are in Moscow: Russian news agencies

bought Ṁ9 NO

Arbitrage? https://manifold.markets/Tristan/in-which-country-will-assad-be-on-j#

In which country will Assad be on Jan 1, 2025?

bought Ṁ100 YES

Trading on Czech news that his plane disappeared from the radar.

What if his location and status are undisclosed or unclear on December 31st/January 1st? Market is extended until credible reports, or N/A? Also, end date is currently set on December 15th, not December 31st or January 1st.

@RatUziCat Market extends until proof of life or death. Extended until Jan 7th

bought Ṁ250 NO

@TimothyBandors thanks!

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