This market resolves YES if, by 2040, there is a particular first move for white in a standard game of chess which we know to be optimal. That is, we must have a proof that the outcome of the game with perfect play after that move is the same (Win, lose, or draw) for white as before the move.
Feb 6, 1:13pm: Will an optimal first move for white be known by 2040? → Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?
1,000
1.00If strong proofs are required, then this is unlikely to ever resolve. If mere knowledge-beyond-a-reasonable-doubt is required, we already have https://www.chessdb.cn/queryc_en/.
We solved busy beaver, this doesn't seem that much harder given increasing compute
If both players are able to force a draw no matter which white's first move is, does this resolve YES as all moves are "optimal"?
Yes, if we have a proof of that fact then any move would be known to be optimal, and therefore at least one move would be known to be optimal.
I would expect g4 and f3 to be losing for white, while everything else draws. I seriously doubt that will be proved by 2040 though.