How many AI systems will OpenAI announce in one year, starting March 19, 2024?
Plus
13
Ṁ470Mar 20
1D
1W
1M
ALL
91%
2 or more
83%
3 or more
43%
4 or more
27%
5 or more
To avoid complications in resolving this market, I define an OpenAI model as announced when it appears on https://openai.com/research under "Models." For reference, here is the current list, as of March 18:
This list looks complete enough to me that I'm comfortable using it as a proxy for model announcements. However, note that e.g. GPT-3.5 would not have counted as a new model, but OpenAI Codex would have.
I may bet in this market.
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I would really expect o1 to count as a new model, but it looks like OpenAI has neglected to update their website... We have a few months, but let me know what you all think I should do if it still isn't updated by then. Or if anyone knows somebody from OpenAI, tell them to get their act together lol
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