https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Department_of_Government_Efficiency
Did Trump give Elon and Vivek real influence or a fake role to keep them away from him?
It's not a federal executive department, but they have aspirations of cutting the federal workforce by over 50%.
This market resolves YES if there's a media consensus that DOGE has done something meaningful (i.e. not just write a report, but actually influence the federal budget).
Shutting down the Department of Education might count if it is attributed to Musk/Ramaswamy.
An app to file taxes doesn't seem significant enough unless the IRS loses most of it's funding.
May resolve N/A if ambiguous.
1,000
1.00Even if everything DOGE did is reversed today, this should still resolve YES. Just the PR generated has been significant.
It's clear DOGE wasn't a 'fake role' like you had hoped.
@Shai not hoped just heard and needed clarity on at the time.
I mostly agree but it seems premature to resolve in just 2 months.
Surely them "shutting down" USAID (even if they're doing it unlawfully) has to count as something meaningful, right?
@MartinRandall probably but I'll wait for some time before resolving to see if it's all reversed by courts or something.
I won't trade in this because it's subjective but Musk being able to shut down a government funding bill seems like he and DOGE have significant sway on government policy
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00