The US has said it expects Russia to launch an orbital nuclear warhead, purportedly to attack satellite systems. Putin has said Russia will do no such thing. Reuters article here: https://www.reuters.com/world/nukes-space-what-have-russia-united-states-said-2024-02-21/#:~:text=Bloomberg%20on%20Tuesday%20reported%20Russia,explosion%2C%20disabling%20scores%20of%20satellites.

Resolves "YES" if any country other than Russia confirms that Russia has successfully launched a nuclear-warhead into space in calendar year 2024. Confirmation must come in 2024 to resolve yes.

Resolves "NO" otherwise, including if Russia deploys a mock-warhead, non-nuclear warhead, or does not deploy any purported weapons into space, etc.

I may or may not bet in this market.