According to YouGov, Nate Silver (who attended Manifest 2023 and 2024) has 47% name recognition. Will someone attend who has higher, according to YouGov? (They must be polled by YouGov to count. And I will be comparing to Nate’s name recognition then, if it changes.)
If Manifest 2025 does not occur, resolves NO. If something happens to YouGov, I will seek alternate resolution criteria based on the market spirit.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
Update 2025-06-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that their initial check of invited speakers did not reveal anyone more famous than Nate Silver. However, if information is subsequently provided identifying an attendee (who may not have been on the invited speakers list) who is confirmed to be more famous than Nate Silver according to YouGov, the creator will re-resolve the market accordingly.
1,000
1.00@Conflux it is not easy to confirm the 2900+ people above nate did not attend manifest. but i am pretty confident this is NO? michael lewis would have been close (a few hundred behind nate) but he didn't attend. i can't think of anyone else on the https://manifest.is/ invited speakers page at least who would even be included in the list at any ranking. so it'd have to be someone i'm not thinking of who wasn't publicized on the site
@Ziddletwix Yep, I checked the other invited speakers and none of them are on the list, so I'll assume it's Nate. Of course if someone tells me of someone more famous who went I'll re-resolve