Background

The British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) includes Diego Garcia, which hosts a crucial U.S. military base. The UK recently announced (October 2024) an agreement to transfer sovereignty of most of the BIOT to Mauritius, while retaining control of Diego Garcia for at least 99 years. The U.S. will continue to operate its military facility through a sub-lease arrangement with Mauritius.

In recent weeks, Trump has been very keen on US expansionism into Greenland, Panama and even Canada. In parallel, relations between the incoming administration and the UK government have frayed in 2025, following Elon Musk's interventions into British politics. Musk is even exploring methods with which to remove Keir Starmer as PM! The negotiations with Mauritius present a unique opportunity for America to acquire even more territory, whilst inflicting a humiliation upon the UK government.

So I present the banter timeline:

1. The UK rushes get the deal with Mauritius passed before Trump's inauguration.

2. This is unacceptable to Trump.

3. He decides if the UK doesn't want, it should be America's instead.

4. America annexes BIOT.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if before April 1, 2025:

• The U.S. government officially declares intention to take sovereign control of the BIOT, OR

• The U.S. military forcibly seizes control of the territory beyond their existing base rights, OR

• The U.S. government initiates formal diplomatic or legal proceedings to claim sovereignty over the territory

The market will resolve NO if none of these events occur by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Considerations

• The U.S. has operated its military base on Diego Garcia since 1966 through agreements with the UK

• There are currently no indications of U.S. plans to annex the territory

• The recent UK-Mauritius agreement ensures continued U.S. military presence through legal arrangements