When will humanity go extinct
Mini
9
Ṁ702
Oct 26
23%
100 years
13%
1,000 years
8%
10,000 years
90%
1,000000 years
17%
Heat death of the universe
5%
Never

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
Sort by:
1,000000 years
bought Ṁ5 1,000000 years YES

1,000,000 is the favorite choice of the people but it isn't even on the ballot, they're stealing this rigged election folks. half of these poll voters are clearly bots, they're making up names and busing in ballots from kalshi

@Eliza @VandelayIndustries @ChristopherRandles I'm fairly new to this website in not sure how everything works but if you want it here's a poll https://manifold.markets/DallasSchmidt/when-will-humanity-go-extinct-du4sa5j7nm

@DallasSchmidt Does this market resolve to the result of the poll? Proportionally or 100% to the winner?

@Eliza It resolves proportionally

@DallasSchmidt The poll has two answers that are not in the market (100,000 and 100,000,000), and the market has one answer that is not in the poll (1,000000).

This looks like a poll.

bought Ṁ5 1,000000 years NO

I'm assuming only one option will resolve yes?

Let’s roll baby

How does this get resolved in a week?

@VandelayIndustries because I cant wait till never and I want to eventually cash out.

@DallasSchmidt That would be true of most bettors but it doesn't answer the how it will be decided question. A poll maybe?

@DallasSchmidt You've proposed no means by which to resolve the market in a week.

@ChristopherRandles Polls don't make money and for the most part I've only ever done polls.

@DallasSchmidt Markets and polls have different applications. Without resolution criteria, you can't resolve a market. You've proposed no resolution criteria and none is evident from the question given the close date. @mods

@DallasSchmidt Do you realise that as creator of a market, you are supposed to resolve it when the outcome becomes known?

If you don't resolve it after it has closed, the system will nag you about resolving it.

Bettors want to know the method of how you will resolve it in order to know how to bet. Without that, this market seems best avoided so you wont get many traders with an unanswerable question like this. Hope this helps you understand.