Will there be a bank run on manifold?
Mini
3
Ṁ2702030
1D
1W
1M
ALL
10%
Before 2026
22%
Before 2025
24%
Before 2030
70%
Before 2027
With the pivot manifold is going to have to maintain everyone's confidence that they can cover the liability of all the winnings people can withdrawal.
Resolves if there is widespread fears that they can't cover their liability, with a lot of withdrawals.
Examples of things that would cause a YES
Withdrawals are frozen
Public statement from employees about liquidity fears
In a poll of users, more than 30% fear manifold won't be able to honour withdrawals. I'll make polls to measure this at my discretion.
If none of these happen by market close I'll resolve NO.
At this stage I may still add possible yes criteria.
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