Withdrawals are currently frozen:

What would people like to see or hear from us that would help lower this number?

(I don't think the probability is that meaningful rn with current # of traders and the specific criteria, but once the probability becomes more accurate this is something that will be very important for us).

@SirSalty I agree that the concept of this market is very important. Maybe someone would subsidize a market like this for more than 560 play money....but since it has no intrinsic value and your staff can create it out of thin air, I'm not sure how meaningful that is 😂

What would people like to see or hear from us that would help lower this number?

Tell us you're keeping a reserve ratio that looks more like a bank's than a Silicon Valley startup's.

@robm they have stated that they keep 100% in reserve (i.e. in the bank)

@jack Maybe there is way they could 'prove' that they have the funds in reserve which would actually add a degree of trust for users, rather than just providing more ammo for skeptics to say "That could easily be faked."

@Eliza brb getting bank account login details for you so u can check, let me know if u need a phone verification code

@SirSalty (agreed tho, I'm gonna pester the team to do everything we can to maximise accountable trust)

@Eliza sure, but I think the first step is to communicate better since I think most users don't even know that claim!

@jack communication has been an issue. In the May version of the pivot, I felt like I knew everything that was coming. I'm just as active on the platform now, but I only heard hints of rumors ahead of time.

@robm For whatever reason, no one wanted to just simply state the new plan ("new currency, firewalling payout markets from play money markets") until they were totally ready to go. I think it would have been nice to the existing users to explain that some time in advance, but maybe it would have thrown the economy out of whack.

@Eliza Prize point markets stopping was a harbinger of that certainly, so might aswell have said it out loud, yeah.

Yeah I also wish they had communicated the plans. Maybe they didn't want to repeat what happened with prize points, where they thought it was close to ready to go and then they had to totally change the plan.

@jack Yeah, we were waiting on approval from a lot of 3rd parties.

I think the resolution criteria are still confusing. E.g. there are many reasons a withdrawal freeze could happen that aren't a bank run (e.g. payments processor downtime)

Sweepstakes have started!

@Daniel_MC can you add any clarity to the description for resolution criteria?

@Eliza I moved a sentence across from a similar market I made, but will have a think about something better and more objective that I can put in

@Daniel_MC I've had a go. Let me know if you have ideas.

@Daniel_MC Thanks! I'm sure you will do just fine if you continue to monitor the situation.

I feel like there could be large demand to convert mana into prize points to be withdrawn as soon as the economy allows this option, and there could be a 'bank run' almost immediately. It will depend a lot on how many markets are allowed to pay out in prize points.

I started searching for markets like this and also made this one, which is related in spirit:

/Eliza/will-the-total-mana-supply-be-highe

Under-traded market.