Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?
Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?
💎
Premium
53
Ṁ8968
2027
24%
chance

Jigar Shah, director of the DOE Loan Programs Office in the US, claimed on August 8, 2024 that "we expect to produce 80% of the modules we use in this country by 2026."

https://x.com/JigarShahDC/status/1821539692614918542

This market will resolve "true" if in the Annual Solar Photovoltaic Module Shipments Report for 2026, published in August/September 2027, the peak kilowatt total of solar modules manufactured in the US is at least 80 percent of the peak kilowatt total of modules either imported to the US or manufactured in the US and sold domestically. It will resolve "false" if US manufacturing falls short of US purchases for the year 2026.

https://www.eia.gov/renewable/annual/solar_photo/

Note that "true" resolution requires only that US manufacturing be sufficient to meet 80 percent of US demand, not that that actually be where 80 percent of US-deployed modules comes from.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00


Sort by:

US Solar Module Production Targets: A Step Toward Energy Independence

Jigar Shah, director of the DOE Loan Programs Office, has set an ambitious goal for the United States to produce 80% of its required solar modules domestically by 2026. This target underscores the growing emphasis on domestic manufacturing and reducing reliance on imports in the renewable energy sector. Success will be measured in the Annual Solar Photovoltaic Module Shipments Report for 2026, which will compare the peak kilowatt totals of U.S.-manufactured modules against those imported or sold domestically.

While achieving this milestone requires significant investment in manufacturing infrastructure, it also promises to boost job creation and strengthen the nation's energy security. For businesses looking to align with these goals, exploring commercial solar solutions can provide both economic and environmental benefits. Learn more about how office buildings and other commercial properties are adopting solar technology at: Solar panels for office buildings .

Stay informed as the U.S. continues to advance toward a sustainable energy future.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.