More likely to resolve YES if:
Russian officals control the borders into and out of ukraine
The ukrainian government no longer exists
The ukrainian government exists only in exile
Wikipedia articles about the war say that it is over and say that russias victory was decisive
More likely to resolves NO if:
The situation is largely similar to today or more favorable for ukraine
The government of Ukraine still controls some territory inside ukraine
some group other than the government of Russia controls more than 20% of the land area of ukraine
sorry if this is a repeat but I don't think question exists in this exact form :)
1,000
1.00@mariopasquato In that scenario I would probably resolve YES. great question though, it highlights a key difference between the resolution criteria and what you would naively think from just the title.
@DylanSlagh There is space even for more nuance. Imagine a scenario where part of the current government ousts Zelenski (legally or not) and forms a new government that signs a peace agreement with Russia and is regarded as a puppet government by some but not by others.
@mariopasquato That would probably resolve NO. That’s what I was trying to convey with this line in the description:
>Wikipedia articles about the war say that it is over and say that russias victory was decisive.
I was imagining something more akin to the front collapsing and russian forces marching to Ukraine's western borders. If that doesn’t happen this market is much less likely to resolve YES. (although it’s still possible)