Update 2024-Jan-06:
I don't think Ukraine counts as "annexed", so I resolved the other market to NA. We can re-open this market, and extend the date until 2031 (or whenever GDP data is available for 2030).
Original Criteria
This is part of a conditional forecast. This version is about Ukraine's GDP given Russian NOT annexing them this year. For the other version (Ukraine's GDP if Russia does annex Ukraine), click here.
Resolution waits until the GDP and deflator numbers for the fiscal year 2030 are published. So, probably some time in 2031.
We can use the world bank's GDP numbers.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=UA
And we can use the World Bank's GDP deflator, to adjust it to 2020 dollars. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.DEFL.KD.ZG?locations=UA
Will Ukraine's 2030 real GDP be over 180bn USD (in 2020 US dollars)?
1,000
1.00I don't think Ukraine counts as "annexed", so I resolved the other market to NA.
We can re-open this market, and extend the date until 2031 (or whenever GDP data is available for 2030).
I've also re-arranged the market description (same criteria and wording), just to make it easier to read.