Will Russia pay any reparations to Ukraine by 2030? | Manifold

Will Russia pay any reparations to Ukraine by 2030?

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#🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war

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Does it count if western countries give west-controlled Russian reserves to Ukraine?

Does it count if Russia funds the reconstruction in the freshly-annexed areas?

Does it count if Russia funds the reconstruction of the remaining Ukrainian areas as part of a post-war settlement/arrangement?

@24a +1 this is very important clarification

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-3% 1d20% chance

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Will Russia pay at least $1bn in reparations to Ukraine by Jan 1, 2026?

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Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

Will relations between Ukraine and Russia normalize by 2040?

Will Russia formally cede Crimea before 2030?

Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2030?

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