How fully must Hezbollah withdraw their forces? If they mostly withdraw but leave some equipment and personnel for future conflict how will this resolve? Is a public statement they have withdrawn enough?

@Epistemic_Trespasser please clarify.

@DanielFox9fff my natural interpretation is "fully enough that the Israeli government accepts it as sufficient to move on with the ceasefire as planned", but would also appreciate clarification since this is very non obvious.

@ShakedKoplewitz you are obviously lack of basic logic. Consider we are going to decide whether "A have done P", now "B say that 'A do P' then 'B do Q'", can we resolve the question if "B have done Q"?

Obviously not. And the resolution should be defined by "what A have done or have be done", and B is may not be the major part of the resolution. So I basically agree with both the question maker have said (the criteria) and Daniel here (could be more clearer). But it certainly have nothing todo with israel accept to ceasefire.

@FrostTao well, I can't argue with this masterful piece of symbolic reasoning.

@ShakedKoplewitz that was a badly formatted and spelled comment, however the ambiguity I think being pointed to there is a valid issue. In lieu of clear and uncontroversial resolution criteria I think we're going to have to accept the judgement of the market creator in accordance with what he's already said here.

Would an agreement to do so resolve this question? What if Hezbollah agrees to withdraw past the Litani but it's unclear whether or not they actually have?

Overall, clear resolution criteria would be appreciated.

@DanielFox9fff apparently it's too late for OP to reply, they've already agreed to that in the ceasefire.

@DanielFox9fff An agreement to withdraw not enough to resolve. I will resolve yes if the withdrawal is carried out in a way that a reasonable observer could refer to as a withdrawal of forces. If mainstream sources like the NYTimes or Wikipedia make reference to the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces beyond the Litani as a historical event, that would point to a YES resolution.

@Epistemic_Trespasser

Will the market resolve according to the time such a withdrawal began? The time it ended? The time it was reported on? What if reporting on the subject is still unclear at the start of the new year?

@Epistemic_Trespasser The withdrawal has to have taken place before 2025. If there is still lack of clarity on January 1, i might wait to resolve but the ultimate resolution would still be based on information relevant only to events before 2025.

@Epistemic_Trespasser I assume you mean the end of the withdrawal has to have happened in 2024, right?

Of course Manifold is not Metaculus and the culture here is different, but the question there about Israel invading was N/A'd because the operation started just a few hours before the deadline. There were reports of some troops crossing into Lebanon, but no clarity on whether 100 men had crossed before midnight, which was the exact terms of the question.

Again, Manifold tends to run things differently, of course.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-826921

Increasing noise about a land invasion, if there is one I think pushing them beyond the river is reasonable.

Already have a poll on weather Israel will invade Lebanon it is clearly going to no all of the stats points that way

If Israel conquer the territory by war, is it count as YES?

@0482 Yes, if they clear territory by force, it counts as a YES.

@Epistemic_Hygiene how much clear is "clear"? Which parts of Gaza are clear by your definition, if any?