The ceasefire agreement must:
1) Be confirmed by reputable media outlets, and
2) Last at least one week with no significant recorded violations of the ceasefire (I'm defining "significant violation" as a military action by either side that results in at least one death during the agreed upon duration of the ceasefire)
Since the ceasefire would need to last at least 7 days in 2024, the question will still resolve as NO if a ceasefire agreement is reached at the end of December, e.g. on December 28th.
If somehow a permanent peace deal is reached without a temporary ceasefire, then this question will also resolve YES.
EDIT (12/02/24): Jumping in to resolve some ambiguity in the resolution criteria. Since Israel and Hezbollah are currently under a ceasefire agreement, this question will resolve positively if there are 7 consecutive days with no recorded deaths during 2024. So, it could still resolve as YES even though major violations of the ceasefire have been reported.
1,000
1.00Lebanon ceasefire under strain after Israeli strikes and Hezbollah mortar fire
Jaroslav Lukiv & David Gritten
BBC News
@Tristan Must the targeting of Hezbollah occur within the borders of Lebanon or is it sufficient that Hezbollah operatives are killed?
See the tweet as an example: https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1863980278298898436?s=46
@AviSchwartz If they had weapons, then it's a violation of the 'ceasefire' and a fatality.
I'd argue that should reset the clock.
Jumping in to resolve some ambiguity in the resolution criteria. Since Israel and Hezbollah are currently under a ceasefire agreement, this question will resolve positively if there are 7 consecutive days with no recorded deaths during 2024. So, it could still resolve as YES even though major violations of the ceasefire have already been reported, if the ceasefire is adhered to for a 7-day period sometime this month.
Lebanese media reports series of Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon
All Israel News Staff | Published: December 2, 2024
DF strikes Hezbollah amid truce violations; France said accusing Israel of transgressions
As Netanyahu vows to continue ‘intense reaction’ to terror group’s entrenchment in south Lebanon, Paris reportedly says Israel isn’t using agreed mechanisms to enforce ceasefire
2 December 2024, 4:17 am
IDF says paratroopers killed armed Hezbollah operatives near a church in south Lebanon
2 December 2024, 12:50 am
The IDF confirms carrying out several strikes in Lebanon today, targeting threats that it says violated the ceasefire agreement.
Earlier today, the military says it identified a group of gunmen in southern Lebanon, as they were loading a car up with RPGs, ammunition boxes, and other military equipment. A drone then targeted the vehicle.
In another incident, a group of Hezbollah operatives were spotted at a building in southern Lebanon previously known to have been in use by the terror group. The IDF says troops struck the operatives, and later upon reaching the site they found numerous weapons.
Additionally, a short while ago, the IDF says fighter jets carried out an airstrike against a Hezbollah facility near Sidon, upon identifying activity there. According to the military, the site was used to store rocket launchers.
Separately, the IDF says it carried out a drone strike "deep within Lebanon" against a vehicle that was operating at a Hezbollah missile manufacturing facility.
"The IDF is deployed in southern Lebanon, working against any threat to the State of Israel and will enforce any violation of the terms of the ceasefire agreement," the military adds.
Analysis: Can the Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire hold?(AJ)
Israel’s army has launched strikes inside Lebanon despite terms of the ceasefire and is restricting people from returning to their homes in parts of the south. Will Hezbollah respond?
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Hard to tell without detailed casualty reports.
@ProjectVictory Have you a source which explicitly states someone has been killed? As per criteria, a violation is only counted if there are deaths.
I’ve personally found none so I’d say it’s unbroken.
Lebanon Cease-Fire Appears to Hold Despite Israeli Strike (NYT)
Nov. 28, 2024Updated 3:42 p.m. ET
The uneasy truce between Israel and the militant group Hezbollah largely held through its second day in Lebanon on Thursday, although Israel conducted an airstrike that it said targeted militants violating terms of the cease-fire deal.
The Israeli strike was the first of its kind since the U.S.-backed cease-fire went into effect before dawn on Wednesday. But despite an exchange of blame between two parties of the deal — Israel and Lebanon — neither of the war’s combatants, Israel or Hezbollah, seemed keen to immediately return to full-scale fighting.