A biomarker test to measure progression for Parkinson's Disease is available in the US before 2029
A biomarker test to measure progression for Parkinson's Disease is available in the US before 2029
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There will be a test of a biomarker which meaningfully correlates with parkinson's progression for at least a signficant subset (>10% of those diagnosed clinically) of people with Parkinson's disease in the US before 2029
examples: Patient has classic non-genetic PD from a clinical diagnosis based on symptoms (rigidity, etc.). There will be a test which they can take which shows the severity of the disease, and which when given repeatedly can be used to measure how much or less the disease has progressed
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% too high I'm afraid. So far the available test can diagnose early (alpha synclein assays and datscan) and maybe predict the people most at risk but there's no evidence that they correlate with the progression of the disease yet (unless you really significantly decline, for instance become demented).
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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