Will an F-35 be lost by the US in 2025
Plus
24
Ṁ9952026
57%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Lost for any reason. Within 2025 calendar year.
Counts
Crash
Lost
Captured
Disappeared
Stolen by adversary
Does not count
Unusable plane due to bugs
Repossessed by creditors
Unavailable due to conflict with former ally who no longer allows us physical access
We still control it but it can't take off due to runway damage or runway unavailability, even intentional
Sold or transferred to ally or other
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Sort by:
Looks like the US has written off 7 F-35's over the course of 10 years (probably this is an undercount). I presume that implies a 70% chance of losing a jet any one year
@QuestionableQuentin That's hilarious - I had some bike work to do at the time. Here is the correct link: https://www.f-16.net/aircraft-database/F-35/mishaps-and-accidents/year/2024/
Related questions
Related questions
Will the U.S. and China go to war before 2025?
2% chance
Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2027
16% chance
Will there be a fatal airliner crash in the US before the end of 2024?
11% chance
Will Iran lose any Su-35 aircraft during 2024?
14% chance
Will an F-35 be captured or in possession of an adversary any time through 2030
18% chance
Will the US be at war with Iran before the end of 2025
19% chance
Will an F5+ Tornado strike the United States by the end of 2025?
49% chance
[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?
34% chance
Will Turkey rejoin the F-35 program in 2024?
15% chance
[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?
27% chance