Which countries will detonate a nuclear weapon offensively in 2025?
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Plus
16
Ṁ10k
2026
8%
United States
7%
Russia
1.7%
United Kingdom
6%
France
6%
China
8%
India
13%
Pakistan
7%
North Korea
8%
Israel
10%
Iran
7%
[Other country not listed above]
6%
[Non-state actor]
5%
[Unattributed as of close time]

Tests, accidental detonations, and peaceful nuclear explosions are not included. During 2025, UTC time.

The weapon must detonate to be included.

2024 version: /EvanDaniel/which-countries-will-detonate-a-nuc

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The intent here is that this list is exhaustive; if there is an offensive nuclear detonation, at least one of the categories can resolve positively. That is: "country" and "non-state actor" include all possible actors; between that and "unattributed", something can resolve positively.

Did I miss anything there? Any edge cases worth worrying about?

opened a Ṁ5 Russia YES at 1.0% order

Extraterrestrial Aliens.

OK, yep, that's an edge case I missed. Hopefully not worth worrying about, though. I think that could result in a situation where an alien state offensively detonates a nuke and nothing here resolves in response.