Including tests, accidental detonations, etc.
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Edit 2023-09-21 to use the same definitions as this market:
The fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.
Any detonation of a nuclear weapon, whether test or non-test, deliberate or inadvertent or accidental, would count towards question resolution.
Detonation here means nuclear explosion. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that does not count. If a nuclear weapon were launched but the nuclear weapon did not detonate, that would not count as detonation.
1,000
1.00I suggest using rules similar to the ones I've used in my questions:
fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.
https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonation-ca-1f2e9a9515f4
@jack thanks! My intent is to talk about new uses o of weapons, not residual deaths from past uses. Secondarily, it's to match other existing markets as closely as possible.
The 2023 version of this doesn't specify; if that author clarified a good answer I'd rather copy that than sorry about the exact details. Falling that I'll try to copy one of yours.