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The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is commonly referred to as the "Iran deal." The expiration of key provisions of the JCPOA in late 2023 creates a sense of urgency for both parties. US President Joe Biden has expressed openness to rejoining the JCPOA if Iran complies with its terms.
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1.00Based on recent information, the outlook for the US and Iran holding talks in 2024 to limit Iran's nuclear program, potentially reviving or replacing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is complex and fraught with challenges.
There have been indirect talks between the US and Iran aimed at addressing Iran's nuclear program and potentially restoring the JCPOA. However, the political climate, particularly in the US and Iran, and recent developments have made negotiations difficult. The transfer of drones from Iran to Russia and Iran's crackdown on civilian protests have significantly narrowed the political space for the US and Europe to negotiate a deal with Iran that provides broad sanctions relief before the 2024 elections. Furthermore, the US is unlikely to accept a draft deal considered last year due to Iran's nuclear advancements since then.
The talks appear to be in a precarious position, with recent Iranian responses being characterized as steps "backwards" by the US, indicating a significant gap between the parties' positions and a lack of immediate prospects for a breakthrough. Despite these challenges, the State Department has indicated that the US is in the "very final stages" of nuclear talks with Iran, suggesting that efforts to reach an agreement are ongoing, though the outcome remains uncertain. A top US official has described the negotiations as at a "stalemate," highlighting the difficulty in overcoming the existing impasses.
Given these dynamics, predicting the likelihood of the US and Iran successfully holding talks in 2024 to limit Iran's nuclear program involves considering both the willingness of both parties to make concessions and the international geopolitical environment's influence on negotiations.