This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
Resolution based on IEA. Having previously said it would be in 2025, the IEA now thinks it could happen in 2024, “as a result of the accelerated pace of renewable capacity additions” and “the plateauing of electricity generation from coal.”
1,000
1.00IEA is now back to saying 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-mid-year-update-july-2024
...then it'll be 2026, 2027 etc.
Just joking... but in all seriousness, even with hydropower reclaiming TWh after droughts and whatnot, renewables are still not able to pass coal - that was my only doubt in owning "Yes" shares in that hydro could push it over the line. That being said, there's still a chance this could resolve "No".
Looking at Our World in Data, I get 10,200 TWh of electricity from coal in 2022, with renewables accounting for ~8,500 TWh. IEA now predicts "Higher renewable growth than overall electricity demand growth is likely to push global coal consumption on a downward trajectory. This would imply that coal is likely to peak in 2023. " (https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2023/demand)
And renewable energy in terms of solar and wind, has been growing by 30+% per year recently, suggesting around 300+ TWh growth in solar and 600+ TWh growth in wind, in 2023. If that growth rate didn't compound, just stayed at +900 TWh for renewables in 2024, and coal didn't peak, just stayed where it is, then 2024 would be at 10,200 twh coal, 10,300 TWh renewables.