Option will resolve as "yes" if

• United States executive and legislative branches pass and sign a bill banning assault weapons before 2025 (even if the bill is not enforced until after 2025) OR

• United States executive branch signs an order banning assault weapons, and such order is actually enforced before 2025 OR

• A United States federal agency announces a new policy banning assault weapons, and such policy is actually enforced before 2025

Any bill, order, or policy which refers to itself as an “assault weapons ban” will counted as an assault weapons ban. If the bill, order or policy does not refer to itself as an assault weapons ban, I will look at the effects of the law on an average Americans ability to purchase an assault weapon.  

“Assault weapon” is a nebulous category. For the purposes of this bet, I will look the Wesson M&P 15 Sport, the Sig Saur MCX Rattler, the Century Arms VSKA, the FN Scar, and the Daniel Defense MK 18. If the majority of these models are made unavailable for civilian purchase, or are neutered to comply with new laws, option will resolve as “yes”.

If most of these models are still available for civilian purchase, in configurations that are same or improved (from a consumer’s standpoint), AND there has been no bill passed, executive order signed or federal agency policy change that calls itself an “assault weapons ban”, option will resolve as “no”.