There were 381 crewed flights total and 5 disasters that would qualify. Outside of Space Shuttle program there were no fatalities since 1971. Two of 135 shuttle missions failed.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents

Falcon 9 completed 300 missions, Crew Dragon - 12. Crew Dragon has a launch escape system, which should separate the capsule from the rocket in case of anomaly on ascent.

Now, Elon has said that Spaceship won't have a launch escape system, and it won't land using parachutes. This is a bit worrying but this vehicle will first be tested in dozens if not hundreds unmanned flights - a luxury we didn't have historically. (Or plans might change)

Tl;dr this is completely mispriced, should be <10%

@nikstar Hopefully you're right.

Workplace accidents at the factory do not count?

I think you can modify your title to help clarify what does and does not count.

@Eliza I added “in a rocket” to the title. I think it was already clear in the description

@GabeGarboden Much appreciated! I think it's important because someone else might have a similar market that includes things like workplace accidents, bystanders, etc.

I think the market is even better with the new title anyway.

Is this really just for rockets exploding, or would it count other kinds of in-flight accidents? Like if a Crew Dragon depressurized on orbit or a Starship carrying people disintegrated during reentry, would this resolve YES? What about an explosion in a factory rather than on the launchpad?

@sesquipedalianThaumaturge Yes, I'd consider an in flight disaster/malfunction of the spacecraft as yes. Factory explosion doesn't count. And on the launch pad I mean killing the people inside the rocket, not any bystanders.