Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at the end of 2025?

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Ṁ34k

Jan 1

79%

chance

ALL

Resolves Yes if Elon Musk is the richest person in the world according to Forbes:

https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/

If Forbes doesn’t exist it will be based on popular reporting of the matter.

Resolves No otherwise

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bought Ṁ10,000 YES

Elon is ahead by over $100 billion again (at least according to Forbes):

bought Ṁ100 YES at 66%

opened a Ṁ5,000 NO at 66% order

NO order up

bought Ṁ250 NO

@jim Wtf happened

oh larry is fking rich

@Bayesian he's well past Elon at this point

@Bayesian if u recall this was one of jim's big ACX competition predictions

@jim That’s fking obscene. And he’s not nearly as ill afaict. Why doesn’t he do more with that $?

@jim Nice!

@jim why is he still behind musk in the real time ranking though (which seems to already account for the $100bn bump?)?

@MachiNi ORCL peaked at $345 this morning, and then dropped back to around $323. So Larry Ellison was briefly ahead, but now I guess he's a little behind again?

opened a Ṁ100 YES at 51% order

@TimothyJohnson5c16 of course there would be some correction. Weird how quick and radically people updated

sold Ṁ603 NO

@MachiNi Actually, I also just realized Forbes and Bloomberg have very different estimates for Elon's net worth. Forbes is around $40 billion higher, so I think Elon was never behind at all in their ranking.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 yes they do, and that makes markets resolving according to either rankings different — both for Musk half trillionaire and for Musk vs Ellison.

bought Ṁ50 YES

yes

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