Will Elon Musk be the world's first trillionaire? | Manifold

Will Elon Musk be the world's first trillionaire?

Plus

83

Ṁ11k

2050

40%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES once Elon Musk is listed by Forbes or a similar sources as a trillionaire.

Resolves NO once someone else is listed by Forbes or a similar sources as a trillionaire, or Elon Musk experiences information-theoretic death.

(Denoted in nominal USD.)

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bought Ṁ30 NO

I think the ketamine might melt his brain before then

Related: https://manifold.markets/robotnik/will-elon-musk-be-worth-more-than-1?r=cm9ib3RuaWs

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion during his lifetime?

48% chance. Resolution Criteria - (1) Major publication of record reporting - NYTimes / Financial Times / Wall Street Journal / Etc (2) Should it be mathmatically demonstrable (ie, shares reported in latest SC 13G/A multiplied by current stock price, etc) (3) Elon's Death - Upon his death if to that point the market has not resolved 'YES' already, it will resolve 'NO'.

Does this also resolve NO conditional on Musk dying?

@LukeBousfield Yeah that would count too.

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