Will there be 20 Starships by 2050?
Mini
8
Ṁ531
2050
96%
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Ṁ1,000
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Experimental mod ruling given the creator is inactive:

This question is counting the number of (not necessarily concurrently) "operational" Starships. An "operational" Starship will be defined as one that has been used in a successful launch to space (including tests).

A successful launch to space is defined the same as the mod clarification in this question:

/Alexf3a5/will-spacexs-starship-superheavy-la

A "successful launch" means any launch in which:

  • A Starship–Superheavy full stack lifts off from the surface of Earth under the thrust of its engines, and

  • Starship reaches an altitude of at least 100km, and

  • Starship either:

    • Successfully deploys or delivers a payload to its intended trajectory or destination, or

    • If a test flight with no payload, reaches its target trajectory or destination - disregarding later parts of the flight pertaining only to vehicle recovery or disposal.

The last point is context-dependent:

  • If a test flight is attempting to land Starship on e.g the moon or on Mars, then Starship must land in one piece at the target destination to count as a success.

  • If a test flight is testing Earth orbital capabilities, then Starship must reach its target orbital or near-orbital trajectory, but the launch will still count as a success if it burns up on re-entry.

  • If a test flight is of point-to-point suborbital hops, then Starship must land in one piece at the target destination for it to count as a success. Point-to-point hops can be identified by their highly elliptical trajectories, with target perigee well inside the Earth.

In all cases it doesn't matter whether the booster survives.

Unlike that question, for this one we're counting the number of Starship vehicles, not the number of launches. So a Starship that launches multiple times will only be counted once.

Launches must take place prior to 2050, local time at the launch site, to qualify a Starship as operational.

Candidate vehicles so far:

  • Ship 24 (launched in IFT-1 Apr 20th 2023) launch: ✅, 100km: ❌ ⇒ operational: ❌

  • Ship 25 (launched in IFT-2 Nov 18th 2022) launch: ✅, 100km: ✅, target trajectory ❌ ⇒ operational: ❌

  • Ship 28 (launched in IFT-3 Mar 14 2024) launch: ✅, 100km: ✅, target trajectory ✅ ⇒ operational ✅

Current count is 1 at time of last edit.

Big rocket successor counts

What if it is a successor type with a different name? I guess "Starship 3" would count but if it is "Enterprise" and has a somewhat different design?

Operational