Will a CRISPR-based gene editing therapy for transthyretin (ATTR) amyloidosis be available in the US by 2027?
Will a CRISPR-based gene editing therapy for transthyretin (ATTR) amyloidosis be available in the US by 2027?
Mini
1
Ṁ102027
59%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is the first the first in vivo CRISPR-based candidate to begin late-stage clinical development. Phase 3 trials expected in late 2023. https://www.europeanpharmaceuticalreview.com/news/187777/regulatory-first-for-gene-editing-therapy/
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Sort by:
The current price is approximately the percent of drugs entering Phase III trials that become approved: https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/latest-drug-failure-and-approval-rates
That seems reasonable for now, but I'll definitely watching this closely. Thanks for posting this question, I wouldn't have known about this otherwise!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will a gene therapy that edits multiple genes using CRISPR be approved by the FDA before 2030?
78% chance
Will there be an in-vivo gene therapy that edits multiple genes at once approved anywhere in the world before 2030?
52% chance
Will gene editing have cured at least one major disease by 2025?
95% chance
Will we have gene therapy for a major strain of Crohn's disease by 2030?
26% chance
Will there be a CRISPR treatment for Ehlers-Danlos Syndromes before 2040?
52% chance
Will Alzheimer’s be curable by 2027?
7% chance
By 2030, will gene editing to cure serious genetic diseases be seen as generally uncontroversial?
18% chance
Will there be a cure for Prion diseases by 2025
1% chance
Which applications of CRISPR technology will achieve regulatory approval for use in humans by 2030?
Will there be a credible (see details) announcement of human multiplex gene editing (≥5 genomic loci) pre 2026?
34% chance