Conditional on at least 8 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
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Ṁ1170
2100
41%
chance

The condition is met if we ever cross the threshold, even if global temperatures are later brought below it. The resolution criterion is met if world population ever dips below 1 billion for any length of time before 2100.

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The last glacial maximum, the peak of the last ice age was about 3°-8° C colder. 8°C hotter by 2100 would mean total ecological collapse.

@Rwin Yeah. At that point agriculture is just impossible. Permian type beat.