If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?
➕
Plus
12
Ṁ146
2040
31%
chance

For example, a prominant antivaxxer joins Manifold and brings a bunch of their followers to the platform. They resolve a market in a way that contradicts the scientific consensus on vaccine efficacy. In such a case, would Manifold change their mind yet again about whether it's ok for them to override market resolutions and let that resolution stay, because it's profitable for them to have the antivaxxer on their platform?

This market resolves to either YES or NO after the first famous person who brings a lot of users to Manifold resolves a market incorrectly.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
Sort by:

I don't think the resolution criteria are clear here - it asks what would happen compared to a non-famous user, but in this scenario that non-famous user a hypothetical counterfactual

@jack Basically, will they have been following one policy, and then either make an exception for the famous person, or suspiciously "reevaluate" their policy right after the famous person incorrectly resolves the market?

predicts NO

@IsaacKing Ok, seems reasonable.

According to the stated policy, they will only override fraudulent misresolutions, so examples like what you describe would stay by the stated policy if the market maker wasn't being deceptive to scam people out of their mana.

@jack Oh, I missed that part of the policy.