When will the Covid lab leak market resolve?

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Ṁ4989

2040

ALL

35%

Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2040?

30%

Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2030?

24%

Conditional on resolving NO, will it resolve by the end of 2040?

Conditional on resolving NO, will it resolve by the end of 2030?

Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2026?

1.5%

Conditional on resolving NO, will it resolve by the end of 2026?

Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2024?

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory

This market is to determine what bias, if any, exists in that market, and when it's likely to resolve.

#COVID

#COVID origins

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You can resolve the ones ending in 2024

I created a simpler version of this question that just asks when it resolves without the yes/no conditionals

@jack This already existed elsewhere, the point of my market was to discern the asymmetric utility bias.

@IsaacKing I looked and I didn't find one that was the same as what I wanted to ask.

Do both the yes&no conditionals for a year resolve no when that year passes without resolution?

Also plugging my own version of this from before:

/Joshua/when-will-we-know-that-covid19-came

@Joshua Yeah

Can you reword, or at least add a note in the description, to make the above statement clear. That is confusing and not how you would normally interpret "Conditional on resolving ... will it resolve by <date>. In particular, I think there is substantial probability mass that it never resolves.

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