When will the Covid lab leak market resolve?
Plus
29
Ṁ45672040
1D
1W
1M
ALL
40%
Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2040?
21%
Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2030?
20%
Conditional on resolving NO, will it resolve by the end of 2040?
8%
Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2026?
6%
Conditional on resolving NO, will it resolve by the end of 2030?
3%
Conditional on resolving YES, will it resolve by the end of 2024?
1.5%
Conditional on resolving NO, will it resolve by the end of 2026?
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory
This market is to determine what bias, if any, exists in that market, and when it's likely to resolve.
Get
1,000
and1.00
Sort by:
@jack This already existed elsewhere, the point of my market was to discern the asymmetric utility bias.
Do both the yes&no conditionals for a year resolve no when that year passes without resolution?
Also plugging my own version of this from before:
Related questions
Related questions
By when will the Covid lab leak market resolve?
When will we know that COVID-19 came from a laboratory? [Unlinked Multiple Choice Derivative of Existing Market]
Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2025?
2% chance
If the COVID lab leak market resolves NO, will it be controversial?
48% chance
When will Isaac King's "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?" market resolve?
Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
33% chance
Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?
7% chance
If the COVID lab leak market resolves YES, will it be controversial?
21% chance
Will the Covid Lab Leak Theory become truth by the end of 2024?
9% chance
Covid a lab leak?
53% chance