Will the Bitcoin to USD exchange rate fluctuate by a factor of 2 or more in 2025?
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If the ratio of highest point / lowest point is at least 2, this market resolves to YES. Otherwise it resolves to NO.
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@JonathanSimon That's a much less interesting question IMO. Crypto proponents claim it's the currency of the future. If it's going to be a useful currency, it needs to be stable. If it's undergoing massive fluctuations, it's not a useful currency; doesn't matter whether its most recent movement has been up or down.
Not to mention that predictions about its expected movement direction are already included in its current price as per the EMH, so there's not much point in having a prediction market on that question as well.
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