Will the Bitcoin to USD exchange rate fluctuate by a factor of 2 or more in 2025?
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2026
67%
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If the ratio of highest point / lowest point is at least 2, this market resolves to YES. Otherwise it resolves to NO.

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So far it has happened for 13 years in a row, probably is going to happen in 2025 too.

The real question is, which direction will the fluctuation be in 🤔

@JonathanSimon That's a much less interesting question IMO. Crypto proponents claim it's the currency of the future. If it's going to be a useful currency, it needs to be stable. If it's undergoing massive fluctuations, it's not a useful currency; doesn't matter whether its most recent movement has been up or down.

Not to mention that predictions about its expected movement direction are already included in its current price as per the EMH, so there's not much point in having a prediction market on that question as well.

@IsaacKing Very fair point!