Will US state policies on transgender people be significantly more polarized at the beginning of 2026? | Manifold

Will US state policies on transgender people be significantly more polarized at the beginning of 2026?

Plus

18

Ṁ437

2026

69%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://www.lgbtmap.org/equality-maps/index/policies

As of market creation, the "gender identity" tab currently includes 37 states that are either "high" or "negative" in their policy tally. At market close, this resolves YES if that number is 45 or above, otherwise it resolves NO.

In the event that lgbtmap changes its scoring criteria significantly or ceases to exist, I'll do my best to resolve based on the scoring criteria in place at the time of market creation.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

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For trans policy in particular, you want the "gender identity" tab - which is already at 37 states (and four territories.) It could decrease over the next few years, so it's not an auto-YES, but...

@evergreenemily Oh whoops, you're right. I fixed the numbers in the description to make sense.

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