I made a related question:

Plurality/system awareness seems to be gaining traction in all the online progressive spaces I'm in. Not quite as much in my IRL communities, but it's still a surprising surge of awareness.

At ~15%, YES seems like a pretty good offer.

Are you counting by individual identities, or by bodies?

@adele I assume it's probably by bodies / individuals as measured by the census and other population measures, otherwise this would be ~99% YES. IIRC the average person with DID has more than 10 alters, so if they all counted, only ~0.1% of bodies would need to have DID for this to resolve YES (assuming ~1% of people are trans, which I think may be a low estimate.) I haven't seen the latest research but I'm under the impression it's more like 1-1.5% or so.

I've heard that people with DID and trans people are roughly as common, i.e. around 1% of the population (with significant overlap, as many trans people have some pretty serious childhood trauma). The social stigma around DID is much, much stronger, though, and I don't think that will change by 2035. Gut instinct says there are more people with DID than there are trans people, but they're much less likely to speak about it in public* or admit it on surveys, so we might not know for a long time. I'll just set some limit orders for now.

*Source: We're Exhibits A through J.

if it's called "plurality" surely it must be the most common

Definition of plurality?

@Socrates I don't have a formal definition that I'm going to use to resolve this market, but here is a wiki article about it: https://pluralpedia.org/w/Plurality

@Yev Oh wow, I thought this was about polyamory or something like that. Definitely buying some no shares now.

I don't think its rate will change much; it's already pretty common, but I don't think it's as common as being trans. But I might be wrong about my maximum likelihood, so buy yes, limit order no.