Article 49, clause 3 of the French Constitution allows the government to impose the adoption of a text by the Assembly, immediately and without a vote.
This question resolves YES if at least one bill passes through the use of 49.3 between October 1, 2024 and the end of year. Resolves NO otherwise.
[Note, Dec 4, 2024:] Title has been renamed from "Will Article 49.3 of the French Constitution be used in 2024?" to better reflect the resolution criterion (which has not changed). Apologies for the confusion.
1,000
1.00Censorship motion has passed, therefore the budget bill (linked to the 49.3 attempt) has not, question is still open. https://www.francetvinfo.fr/politique/gouvernement-de-michel-barnier/le-gouvernement-de-michel-barnier-est-renverse-apres-l-adoption-d-une-motion-de-censure-a-l-assemblee-nationale_6935810.html
@JeremyPerret this appears to be inconsistent with the market’s description: article 49.3 has been used. It just hasn’t been used in a way that ended up well for the government.
@RaphaelBon At the time of the market's creation all uses of 49.3 for decades had ended up in the bill passing... so I foolishly declared the passing of the bill as the resolution criterion, and kept it as is. But you're right, shall I make the title more precise?
@JeremyPerret Ah right I see now that’s the resolution criterion! Yes maybe changing the title would make it clearer.
Article 49.3 has been triggered, and a censorship motion has been advanced. Please note that the bill needs to pass for the question to resolve YES, and if the censorship motion is approved the bill doesn't. https://www.francetvinfo.fr/economie/budget/video-chacun-doit-prendre-ses-responsabilites-et-je-prends-les-miennes-michel-barnier-declenche-son-premier-49-3-a-l-assemblee-nationale_6932060.html