Mastodon will be more than 1% as big as Twitter in 2030
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12
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48%
chance
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Active users in Jan 2030
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Clarification on Mastodon - are we talking just mastodon.social here, or the whole fediverse, or what?
@Lorxus The whole fediverse. Monthly active users. Data source here: https://fediverse.observer/stats
Shows 1.4 million monthly active users in the fediverse in april, without any deduplication of multiple accounts that belong to the same person.
For twitter I see various estimates from 300-450 million. Twitter's official stats are deduplicated monetizable daily active users (mDAU) which are only 200-230 million. If I can't get a reliable estimate of montly active users in 2030 I'll multiply mDAU by 1.6
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