All jurisdictions within the US only.
Pardons are irrelevant. Pleading guilty to the original charge counts as a conviction. Pleading guilty to a lesser charge doesn't count. Anything overturned on appeal doesn't count. Appeals that are still pending in 2030 will delay resolution. If trump's death moots the appeal process then the conviction stands.
1,000
1.00There are 86 charges total
34 in state court in new york, convicted on all counts
40 in federal court in florida -- dismissed, but the dismissal is pending appeal, but the DOJ will abandon it per policy.
4 in federal court in DC -- DOJ will abandon it per policy
8 in state court in Georgia -- probably going away
The 95% confidence interval is 34-42 convictions out of 86 charges = 40%-49%
89.5% of federal indictments end in a guilty plea. 8.2% of cases are dismissed.
Of the remaining 2.3% of cases - the cases that actually go to trial:
- 1.9% end in convictions - that's 82.6% of cases that go to trial
- 0.4% end in acquittals - that's 17.6% of cases that go to trial
A strict outside view suggests that Trump should be looking to cut plea deals. Contingent on that not being the case, some stats on assorted criminal counts Trump is facing:
Current felony counts:
- DC Federal Case ("Jan 6"): 4 criminal counts, assigned to a judge who has been harsh on January 6th defendants in a jurisdiction whose jury pool is unlikely to contain many hidden die-hard MAGA holdouts.
- Florida Federal Case ("Documents"): 40 felony counts. These are generally considered to be the most open-and-shut legally speaking. On the other hand, the case is assigned to a judge who seems very sympathetic to Trump. in a jurisdiction that is likely to include die-hard MAGAs who could plausibly slip through voir dire.
- New York State Case ("Hush Money"): 34 felony counts, all centered around falsifying business records. Lower profile case, more banal subject matter, relatively low burden of proof for the prosecution. Similarly low probability of diehard MAGAs slipping through voir dire. No idea about the judge.
- Georgia State Case ("Lots of Crimes in service of trying to steal Georgia's electoral votes and then covering up those crimes"): 13 felony counts, neophyte judge appointed by Trump-averse-Republican-governor Kemp, low-MAGA-incidence jury pool in Atlanta, widest ranging indictments of the four cases.
In the DC, Florida, and New York cases I would naively expect most of the counts within each case to go the same way. Georgia sticks out in that regard.
Almost all counts are in the Florida and New York cases (74/91 81%), in cases that seem like relatively easy wins for the prosecution (with an asterisk for relative unpredictability of FL jury pool).
So, having written all that and having not actually done any real math yet, I'd ballpark this around 65%.