Will Donald Trump be found guilty of sexual assault by 2030?

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Does the latest ruling qualify?

predicts NO 1y

@DanMan314 This is a civil case where the standard of proof is just 'does the jury think he's more likely than not to have done it'. I don't believe the term 'found guilty' is used. Based on this I think the answer is probably no but clarification is certainly warranted.

@AngolaMaldives idk seems clear cut to me

I love how this is just another scandal market, but because it's about a Baddie it probably won't receive any pushback

@CarsonGale Free to make others about “goodies “

I would love to think this is possible but in the US you can buy your way out of these types of charges. Just give the alleged victim a huge settlement to drop the charges. See Koby Bryant for prime example.

If they haven't got him in decades previous I doubt they'll manage now.

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Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

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