Will the US have a revolution before 2100?

Can more than one of these resolve YES, or is it just the first one that happens?

Arbing vs the decline in AI doom markets

@JonathanRay can you answer Pat's question below?

does it have to be successful?

@Stralor The regime has to actually change by overthrowing the old regime. If the resulting government crashes and burns after a short time, that still counts.

@JonathanRay thanks!

https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-butlerian-jihad-happen?r=Y2xvdWRwcmlzbQ

Will Butlerian Jihad happen

17% chance. Thou shalt not make a machine in the likeness of a human mind In the Dune books there was an event called 'Butlerian Jihad' https://dune.fandom.com/wiki/Butlerian_Jihad This marker it about will something like 'Butlerian Jihad' occer in real life. It is hard to explicitly explain what is 'something like'. I'm thinking of serveal points: there are very serious problems because of the 'thinking machine technology' (AI) the rules are created that limits the development and production of AI and the rules are actually working, there are no machines 'in the likeness of a human mind' Betting rules. I can bet on this market. Resolving rules. I'm setting the closing date of this market far in the future. I'm not going to change to closing date. If after the closing date this event does not happen this market should be resolved as NO (I'm pretty sure that I will not be able to resolve this marker after the closing date, so I'm asking the moderators to do this resolution after this market closes). This market can be closed and resolved early only in case the described event happens, then this market should be resolved as YES (here I'm also asking moderators to resolve this market if there are clear indications that this has happened, but I'm not resolving this market)

Does AI wiping out humanity count as a revolution? https://manifold.markets/JamesDillard/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

30% chance. This market will resolve to no if AI has not wiped out humanity by the year 2100. If AI has wiped out humanity, the market resolution is on them. I made this bet with @tomchivers on the Browser Bets YouTube show. You can join in here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ak6HxFREPyc&t=1s

@MatthewLichti yes. Any AI takeover counts as a revolution

@MatthewLichti This was my thinking as well for "Other Revolution", although AGI world government coexisting with humans is also a possibility.

@ImperishableNeet We just have to hope the AI lets us keep our mana after the revolution instead of paperclipping us.

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