Will a tunnel between China and Taiwan have started construction by 2040?
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Such a project would dwarf any tunnel that has come before it, but is arguably seen as a political necessity by the Chinese government. The Taiwanese government, not so much

Edit: the island of Taiwan, obviously. A tunnel to territory currently part of ROC would not count if its not the main island

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What if China has already started secretly building a tunnel to Taiwan?

If a tunnel exists but we don't know about it this will not resolve YES

/StrayClimb/land-bridge-built-connecting-prc-ma

/StrayClimb/bridge-built-connecting-prc-mainlan

Ha ha wow I came up with the land bridge idea for similar reasons!