Will 'missing' reporter Minnie Chan return to Hong Kong before 2025?
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3
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Dec 31
22%
chance

Given that she's now been identified as missing (although this is inevitably contested), I anticipate that her arrival from Beijing to Hong Kong will receive sufficient media attention to render resolution concerns moot. However, I will not bet in this market in order to prepare for less desirably ambiguous eventualities.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2023/12/1/hong-kong-journalist-missing-after-reporting-trip-to-china-report-says

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FYI, a series of markets like this is often easiest to work with if created as a single unlinked multiple choice markets rather than many separate ones.