the best case possible situation for him is that he lasts 6 months. This is enough time for the next party election, but more importantly it’s enough time for opposition leader Lee to be sentenced to jail for various corruption stuff and be disqualified from the presidency. The main opposition to impeachment is that it would hand over the presidency to Lee before he can be jailed

Plenty of options for people who think he'll be gone very soon l, which I assume is why this market is being bet down to 1%

https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-yoon-suk-yeol-be-president-of-56A2nQsUOy

https://manifold.markets/Moscow25/will-yoon-suk-yeol-still-be-korean

I bet this down to 1% because his situation is just untenable. His own party leader said he should be suspended, he has a terrible approval rating, and only minority support.

If the impeachment goes ahead, I'd give it >90% odds he is impeached. I think there are good odds he resigns before the vote, good odds he resigns right after the vote, and 90%+ odds the court upholds the impeachment if it gets that far.

I'm much less sure on the other market, because of the number of ways this situation can unravel which don't all sum to yes/no

@draaglom well this aged poorly lol

I mean, he has been in many timezones. Do you mean will he get deposed before the day starts in SK?

Edit: Sorry, misread year.

Disregard, mistook year.

@Kraalnaxx haha, there is a duplicate of this and I made the same mistake. Internet high-five! 👋

@AlexanderTheGreater To sleep deprivation! 👋