When will a nuclear weapon be used for military purposes?
When will a nuclear weapon be used for military purposes?
Mini
7
Ṁ4992200
1D
1W
1M
ALL
1%
2023
5%
2024
13%
2025
5%
2026–2027
5%
2028-2030
7%
2031–2035
6%
2036–2040
9%
2041–2050
5%
2051–2060
5%
2061–2070
5%
2071–2080
5%
2081–2090
5%
2091–2100
21%
Not before 2101
The question will be resolved to the first year (after 1945) during which any entity intentionally detonate a nuclear device that causes substantial damage, harm, or casualties as an act of aggression to advance military objectives against an adversary.
The detonation must be a hostile action deployed for a military purpose, not a test or accident.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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