Will we see a nuclear weapon used to attack another country within the next decade? | Manifold

Will we see a nuclear weapon used to attack another country within the next decade?

15

Ṁ825

2035

5%

chance

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1W

1M

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Will a country use at least one nuclear weapon against another country from now til 2035?

Update 2025-05-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that a dirty bomb will count towards a "yes" resolution.

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Dirty bomb?

@spiderduckpig yes

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