1 day before the explosion, what will be the % at the linked market about "nuclear offensive detonation in 2025"?
Plus
6
Ṁ29082025
1D
1W
1M
ALL
87%
Explosion does not happen
3%
[0%, 10%)
2%
[10%, 20%)
2%
[20%, 30%)
2%
[30%, 40%)
2%
[40%, 50%)
2%
>50%
This market is intended to track, whether Manifold expects to have any insight in advance.
If/When the nuclear offensive detonation happens: this market closes, I will look into the linked market and find the % that was exactly 24h before the explosion. Then the interval that covers the value resolves YES.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
Will an offensive nuclear detonation occur by 2080?
44% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
24% chance
Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030
77% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2024?
7% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
15% chance
Will there be an offensive nuclear detonation in 2025?
7% chance
Which countries will detonate a nuclear weapon offensively in 2025?
Nuclear War 2024: How many of the linked markets will resolve Yes?
Will a nuclear weapon detonation cause at least 1 fatality, by end of 2024?
2% chance
Will there be an accidental nuclear detonation in 2024?
2% chance