We have two different independent potential events A and B.
Somebody sais: "Probability of A is 0.02. Event B is ten times more likely than A."
What number comes to your mind as probability of B?
1) "Multiply the absolute value". 0.02*10=0.2
2) "Multiply the chances". There were 50 "tickets in a hat" and only one of them was suitable for event A, 49 invalid. (0.02=1/(49+1)). We multiply the suitable tickets and don't touch any other.
10/(49+10)=10/59=0.169
This question is just about how you interpret the phrase "more likely".
1,000
1.00Same question with higher probabilities. Curious if people's intuition is different with higher initial probabilities:
@Toby96 i was planning to do the same.
The questioned appeared when i saw relations between 2 unknown probabilities. What if one of them appears to be 0.9 when the other was said to be thrice bigger? Either the equation falls apart or the ticket reasoning was used.