
In 2030, a majority of experts will think open sourcing Llama 3.1 405 was a dangerous move in hindsight.
Mini
14
Ṁ3382030
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
In 2030, a majority of experts will look back and agree that there was not significant justification for believing with greater than 90% confidence that Llama 3.1 405 would not provide the foundation for nefarious actors to produce existentially risky artificially intelligent systems.
Will resolve to a consensus of experts in 2030.
If no clear data exists that demonstrates the opinion of experts, a poll will be used for resolution.
Get
1,000and
1.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will SB 1047 become law? Will Meta open source Llama 4 (or equivalent)
Will many open source advocates agree frontier models have crossed capability thresholds too dangerous to open source?
10% chance
Will an open-source LLM under 10B parameters surpass Claude 3.5 Haiku by EOY 2025?
89% chance
Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?
62% chance
Will a Mamba-based LLM of GPT 3.5 quality or greater be open sourced in 2024?
73% chance
Will an open source LLM (Vicuna, Alpaca, etc.) exceed ChatGPT interest by 2030?
59% chance
[Carlini questions] Delay from the best "closed-source" model release to it being reproduced in "open source" in 2030
-
Will Humanity deploy any new technology in an unsafe way by 2030? (Contra LeCun)
92% chance
Will Humanity deploy any new technology in an unsafe way by 2030 according to LeCun?
52% chance
Will manifold think "it would be safer if all AI was open source" when: