Will manifold think "it would be safer if all AI was open source" when: | Manifold

Will manifold think "it would be safer if all AI was open source" when:

Plus

13

Ṁ726

2100

1D

1W

1M

ALL

15%

Llama 4 comes out

12%

It's 2030

10%

It's 2026 Jan

8%

It's 2025 Jan

6%

GPT 5 comes out

At each of the dates in this market I'll run a poll asking:

"Would it be safer for humanity if all AI was open source?"

First poll:

Get

1,000

and

1.00

Sort by:

This interview with zuck was my inspiration for this market.

At 38 minutes they discuss the dangers of open source and at 48:50 zuck makes an interesting point that maybe the biggest harms aren't the existential ones but the real ones that exist today.

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Related questions

Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)

At the beginning of 2025, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?

An AI is trustworthy-ish on Manifold by 2030?

When will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion on Manifold?

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

What will Manifold users think of the OpenAI board that ousted Sam by end of 2024?

Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)

At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

At the beginning of 2027, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

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