Will SB 1047 become law? Will Meta open source Llama 4 (or equivalent)

Plus

Ṁ7371

2029

ALL

SB 1047 becomes law. Llama 4 is open source

SB 1047 becomes law. Llama 4 is not open source

65%

SB 1047 doesn't become law. Llama 4 is open source

26%

SB 1047 doesn't become law. Llama 4 is not open source

This market involves two different questions.

Will SB 1047 become law?

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve as YES if:

It is signed into law by the Governor of California

Will Meta open source Llama 4 (or equivalent)?

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve as YES if:

Meta releases the full model weights and architecture of a large language model named "Llama 4" or releases a model that is a reasonable observer the successor to Llama 3 (regardless of its name).
AND the released model is made available under an open-source license (e.g., MIT, Apache, GPL)

This market will resolve as NO if:

Meta does not release a model meeting the above criteria by 2029
OR Meta releases the full model weights and architecture of a large language model named "Llama 4" or releases a model that is a reasonable observer the successor to Llama 3 (regardless of its name) and that model is not made available under an open source license.

Additional notes:

The release must include sufficient information and resources to allow independent researchers to run and fine-tune the model.

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Noting that I think there's a decent chance Meta open-sources a smaller Llama 4 but not a bigger Llama 4, which is maybe ambiguous per the current criteria?

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