I posted an article here:
https://www.fortressofdoors.com/ai-markets-for-lemons-and-the-great-logging-off
I make 7 concrete predictions related to a phenomenon I call "The Great Logging Off" that might occur in response to the internet getting saturated with accounts making it hard to distinguish real from fake people.
A decline in big "open sea" social networks like twitter and a move to fragmented silos
An increased premium put on "verified human" accounts + increased platform surveillance
An increased premium put on private socialization
Resurgence and even fetishization of explicitly "offline" culture
A segment of online people getting sucked into the online world even harder as AI-powered super addictions get rolled out
Human civilization adapts as more "offline" cultures outcompete "terminally online" cultures
Real estate prices continue to rise
We'll check in 5 years from now, and I'll evaluate, in my sole opinion, how many of these predictions are holding up.
EDIT:
You can find sub-markets for all these here now:
https://manifold.markets/group/the-great-logging-off
Dec 27, 2:14pm: How many of my predictions in "Markets for Lemons and the Great Logging Off" will come to pass by 2027? → How many of my predictions in "Markets for Lemons and the Great Logging Off" will come to pass by the end of 2027?
1,000
1.00Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Ben Goldhaber
Hosting an informal forecasting session w/ fellow @swift_centre forecaster @finnhambly about @larsiusprime predictions of an informational market for lemons post-chatgpt. https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/how-many-of-my-predictions-in-marke-089c96830000
@MattCWilson Just did, check out:
https://manifold.markets/group/the-great-logging-off
You don’t list them here, probably because they are longer term, but I will bet none of the predictions you make which are dependent on natural selection or reproductive opportunities will happen, for the reason that everything in human history moves on much faster timescales than natural selection can operate on. I don’t believe natural selection had time to change the human species at all even during the Middle Ages, won’t happen now.
@VincentBernardi That is indeed why I didn't list them here, but I'm also not so sure natural selection moves exclusively on long timelines. There is some evidence biological evolution can happen faster than traditionally thought (https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abk0853), and it seems reasonable that even one generation can be enough to see certain kinds of changes, though I agree that in humans, those effects are likely swamped by cultural evolution.